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How do we protect ourselves from inflation?

Inflation

The signs of inflation are becoming more pronounced and have begun to be seen in the wider world. Although the Federal Reserve and the Central Banks assure us that this rise in inflation is temporary, things are not so sure.

It would not be the first time that the authorities of any kind assure us that not much will happen and yet, after these assurances, exactly what they assured us will not happen happened.

It seems that we are in shortage of raw materials and inputs of all kinds: industrial metals, plastics, wood, foodstuffs, semiconductors and many more… and this contributes greatly to rising inflation.

Not all of these increases have been passed on 100% to final consumers, but they will be passed on in the near future. In other words, products of all kinds will continue to become more expensive in the near future.
The combination of low production during a pandemic + money injected into the system + billions of people escaping lockdown and restrictions and preparing to consume and travel, all this forms a super favorable cocktail for inflation, at least in the short and maybe medium term.

Who loses because of inflation?

  1. Those who save – Cash or savings accounts with zero and some interest + those kept in long-term deposits will be affected. They are already devalued compared to a few months ago.
  2. Consumers – Because most of the products and services we consume become more expensive.
  3. The heavily indebted (who have variable interest rates) – Because variable interest rates will most likely increase.
  4. Part of the investors in shares – Inflation creates some disturbance on the stock market, especially for those who hold growth-type shares who live on debt and do not produce enough cash flow and profit. Inflation creates the preconditions for rising interest rates, and this could lead to a decrease in the quotations of many companies, especially those that:
    •  are indebted
    • do not produce enough profit and
    •  are heavily dependent on the price of raw materials and that they cannot afford to easily transmit those costs to consumers.
  5. Fixed income bondholders – Fixed income instruments depreciate when inflation rises.

Who wins due to inflation?

  1. Indebted States – Given that most government securities are issued at fixed interest rates, below inflation and in the long term, states have the opportunity to reduce their debt burden through inflation. Well, what does inflation mean? Devaluation of money. And who benefits from the devaluation of money? Those who borrowed money with fixed interest and, more precisely, who are the biggest borrowers who benefit from low fixed interest rates? They are the issuers of government securities, ie the States.
  2. Manufacturers – Inflation means the appreciation (in monetary terms) of real values in the economy: goods and services that meet real needs. They are not necessarily valued, but only valued in monetary terms – more money on the market, the same amount of goods and services, resulting in more money for the same amount of goods and services. Of course, producers can lose if they do not pass on to consumers the high costs of raw materials. In the end, however, most producers will raise their prices if the market allows it.
  3. Goods and companies producing goods (energy goods, industrial metals, agricultural raw materials)
  4. Real estate owners – real estate is traditionally a good hedge against inflation. All raw material prices have risen – well buildings are made of raw materials and now it costs much more to build a block of flats or a house than last year. If you already own that house / apartment, then the value of your property has just increased due to the increase in raw material prices.
  5. Shareholders in companies producing solid cash flow will most likely benefit from inflation. This would include companies that have a low degree of indebtedness and a high profit margin, this includes companies that can easily make products more expensive (they don’t have much competition): this includes banks and other solid businesses that are cash flow machines.

What can we do concretely to protect ourselves from inflation?

  1. Pay debts with variable interest rates – If we have money lying in deposits, then it would be an obvious but important step. Even if we can’t pay our loans in full, it’s good to pay in part. With inflation, interest rates increase and consequently your bank rates will increase.
  2. Convert variable interest loans into fixed interest loans – If we cannot pay our loans, we can try to renegotiate / refinance them to convert them into fixed interest loans. If there are quite a few options to obtain long-term fixed interest loans, we can look for solutions that cover at least one period of the loan, if not the whole period.
  3. Beware of bonds and government securities – If we have bonds or government securities with fixed interest, along with inflation, they will decrease in value, and the interest paid by them may become real negative.
  4. Consume less – When the prices of goods and services rise, ie we have inflation, it is a good time to optimize and streamline consumption. If in the periods of low inflation we allowed ourselves to be more “broad-handed”, in the periods of inflation we can no longer afford to buy much and for no reason, because it costs us more.
  5. Make long-term contracts – We block any recurring cost through long-term subscriptions. Here we are talking about costs that we have anyway, not new costs.

How do we profit from inflation?

  1. We become producers
    When you have a fixed income (salary), there are little chances to counteract inflation. Any increase in revenue will come with a significant delay over inflation. If you get your income from freelancing or a business, you have the freedom to raise prices and take advantage of inflation.Inflation essentially means that there is too much money on the market compared to the amount of goods and services available. When you position yourself on the side of the producer, you are actually positioning yourself on the winning side of the barricade.
  2. Invest in shares of companies that profit from inflation
    In general, stocks are positively influenced by inflation, given that most listed companies can raise prices with the devaluation of money.However, inflation can affect the value of companies such as those with fixed incomes (subscription-based incomes such as telecom or utility companies) or those with excessive indebtedness.The companies that could benefit from inflation are either those that benefit directly from rising interest rates (banks), or those that have the flexibility to raise prices: energy, food, consumer goods, etc.
  3. Real estate
    Real estate in general tends to keep up or even exceed inflation. In addition, the owner of real estate for rent has the opportunity to protect himself from inflation by increasing the rent.
  4. Commodities and precious metals
    Gold is traditionally an asset that protects us against inflation (long-term and very long-term), tending to appreciate in times of inflation. However, we must know that in the short and medium term, gold is not required to follow inflation (but only in the long term).You can invest directly in physical gold or in financial instruments that have gold as their underlying asset.Commodities are generally appreciated during inflationary periods. They are very sensitive to inflation. You can most easily invest in commodities either by buying a commodity ETF (synthetic replication) or by buying shares of commodity producers.
  5. Invest in stock indices
    Moderate inflation will favor stocks in general. Too high inflation can affect them in the short term (the reasons are multiple – many companies cannot instantly pass on to consumers rising raw material costs + indebted companies are affected by rising interest rates + higher interest rates mean lower stock valuations).In the medium and long term, stocks are generally a very good protection against inflation, having, historically (the US market in the last 100 years), a significantly positive net inflation return of approx. 7% (7% + inflation).

Conclusion

Finally, we must remember that all the above actions and instruments can protect us from inflation theoretically, but the economy is a living organism and the appreciation or depreciation of various assets are influenced by many other factors besides inflation: economic growth, demand, psychological, demographic or social factors etc.

A prudent approach, a diversified allocation of assets and a constant focus on value creation will often position us as winners, regardless of market conditions.

An educated mind that constantly learns and constantly tests will have the ability to adapt to any market conditions and will thrive in the long run.

 

What is inflation and why is it an intensely debated economic phenomenon?

Inflation

Inflation is considered by most specialists as one of the most serious macroeconomic imbalances that jeopardize the development and economic progress of a country, but “What is inflation?”
The most widespread definition in literature is that “inflation is a process of cumulative and self-sustaining growth in overall price levels and declining money-buying power.” Taking a look at the above image, we can see that we can buy different quantities of products over the years. If today you can buy 1kg of tomatoes with 2 EUR, in a few years you will buy a smaller amount of tomatoes with the same amount of money because inflation has increased and purchasing power has dropped.

But what are the causes of inflation?

– the injection of money into the economy (the state is printing money without cover, the action leads to rising prices and imbalance MV = PT where: M = Money supply V = Currency circulation rate P = General price level T = Volume of transactions)
– demand for goods and services is higher than supply and hence supply-demand imbalance. (increase the incomes of the population and, implicitly, the purchasing power, take the consumer loans and reduce the inclination towards saving)
– rising production prices (increasing production costs, falling production and increasing prices)
– rising prices for imported goods / assets (increasing the price on materials, raw materials, etc.)
– High prices that are not related to the drop in supply or increased demand
The most popular forms of inflation: trap / quiet (rising prices up to 3%), rapid (annual growth rate approaching 10%), galloping (annual price increase exceeds 10%) and hyperinflation (monthly price increase
over 50%
<What’s really going on?
The population is affected as the purchasing power decreases, there is a redistribution of income and wealth, confidence in the local currency is lost and the interest in saving is lost.
Companies are forced to reduce production capacity and are more concerned with asset protection against inflationary erosion.
If economic inflation benefits borrowers (who contract loans in the national currency at a certain purchasing power and return them in other inflationary conditions, to a lower buying power) and the interest rate is influenced by the inflation rate.

The inflationist phenomenon is one of the most serious macroeconomic imbalances but I recommend you take a look at hyperinflationary cases.

When does it worth to have money in bank deposits?

Balance inflation

Is it worth having bank deposits? Can you live of the interest you gain?

To these questions, there is no standard answer. The answer is influenced by the size of economies, inflation rate and bank interest.

There were times when interest rates were well above the inflation rate and all people who had savings were directing them into bank deposits. When the bank offers you an interest rate of 18-20% and the inflation rate is 5-8%, the real-positive interest rate is 12-15% and it deserves the investment, right?

Instead, it is not worth having bank deposits when banks offer net interest rates below the inflation rate (banks do NOT need money).
Normally, bank interest rates cover inflation or are slightly below inflation.

In conclusion, it is worth having bank deposits only if interest rates are over inflation rate, otherwise you will only get a reduction in the purchasing power of your own savings!

Savings can help you in the world full of risks we live in

We all live in a world full of uncertainties. Everything that surrounds us – nature, people, things – is in constant transformation, and the result is beyond the limits of our knowledge.
But our economies could be a solution (at least partial) to this problem.
Why? The answer is simple: in situations where we are confronted with many unknowns, over which we have no control, a good idea would be to act in the directions in which we can really do something.
For example, in terms of personal finances. Because money is a mean by which we have been taught that we can interact with the world around us.
So many of the things we need, or the problems we face daily, can be attained or even partially resolved with a certain amount of money, so we might be tempted to believe that ALL our problems would instantly disappear if we had enough money.
A totally wrong perception, for the most important aspects of life really have nothing to do with the notion of money.
But many other things really are related, which is why we are in danger of generalizing …

How can we increase our savings?

By definition, savings are the difference between what we get and what we spend. So, first of all, we could try to act on revenues. We all know that it’s not easy to increase our income, but at least we have the certainty that we know it. I mean, to a certain extent, we can rely on it.
Then, secondly, we can act on spendings. Of course it is not easy, but at least here it depends on us to a greater extent. And if we correctly correlate earnings and revenues, we’ll start to see how savings are gathered.

How can our savings help?

First of all, savings will bring a sense of control into our lives.
Beyond the countless things we CAN NOT influence in any way, the fact that we can act on our personal finances is a positive thing. And when this money control even produces results and we see savings as it accumulates, then we make clear progress towards increasing our safety.
But not only that, our economies influence our lives more directly.
A study made in the US showed that in the years of the last economic recession, 46% of those actively saving said that they were comfortable with their financial situation. Unlike them, 37% of those who did not save said they had to reduce much of their spendings to make it. Clearly, some people manage their money more efficiently than others.
The fact that you have some money set aside and, in fact, in order to live, you need a lower income than you have, it gives you the opportunity to keep your lifestyle even in unfavorable economic conditions. Due to the fact that the option not to put money aside for a certain period (or even to spend from existing economies) does not exist for those who are not accustomed to constantly saving, they will be more affected by any negative changes may occur at some point.
Those who make savings will be less concerned about unforeseen events and will have the ability to make it easier. What is even more important is that they know this, and that gives them a sense of security that no matter what may appear, they can do it.
Also, those who make savings set goals that they want to achieve. They know it’s more financially advantageous to raise money to go on vacation, for example, than to make a loan for that.
For them, savings are an integral part of their life, and the moment they reach their goal is a positive stimulus.
Unlike them, those who are not preoccupied with their economies, even if they get to put something apart, will do so because the fear of unpredictability, not because they are accustomed to do so.
Especially during recessions, economies help foreseeable people to be better prepared and less affected than others. And due to the fact that there will probably be other recessions in the future, maybe it would be a good time to think about your savings.

Also, as inflation is already becoming more and more clearly felt, maybe it would be a good idea to inform yourself about ways to invest your savings so that in the long run you can get profits that go beyond at least the rate at which your purchasing power decreases.

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