Markets Before the Open: Fed Holds in a 10-2 Split, Alphabet Slides After Hours (Oct 29, 2026)

Wall Street edged higher for a third straight session on Wednesday: the S&P 500 rose 0.28% to 7,743.98, the Nasdaq Composite 0.27% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 0.19%, while the Federal Reserve held its policy rate in a 10-2 vote with two policymakers preferring a hike. After the close Alphabet fell about 10% on a quarterly miss and Microsoft rose. Today, October 29, 2026, the first estimate of US third-quarter GDP and the September PCE inflation data arrive at 8:30 a.m. ET, the European Central Bank decides on rates, and Amazon reports after the close. Data cut-off: 08:20 UTC on Thursday (10:20 in Bucharest). The freshest European quote below is stamped 08:06 GMT, and the Asian readings are from reports published in the early hours of Thursday, so they may be stale by the time you read this.

Wednesday, October 28: how the main indices closed

Sources: the three US closes and the Russell 2000 come from Cappnotes (page updated October 28, 2026, 23:10 UTC); TradingKey (October 28, 2026, 8:44 p.m., time zone not stated) gives the same S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq levels and changes, and AP and finanzen.at give matching rounded moves (+0.3%, +0.2%, +0.3%). Point changes are my arithmetic against Tuesday’s closes in our previous edition. The DAX, FTSE 100 and Nikkei levels are from Cappnotes alone; finanzen.at confirms the direction and rounded size (DAX +0.4%, FTSE 100 +0.1%) and says the STOXX 600 finished flat and the CAC 40 slipped slightly, without levels. The STOXX 600 figure in brackets is my own estimate from the morning quote of 644.80 (+0.11%) and is not an official close. Market-data summaries, not exchange files, so the last decimal may differ.

Rates, oil, gold and currencies

Sources: Wednesday figures from Cappnotes; morning figures from AP (published 05:03 UTC), finanzen.at and TraderFactor (03:30 UTC). The two Brent morning rows are not like for like: AP’s quote sits about $4 below the December contract, which suggests a different contract month, but AP does not say. Yields and gold also differ between sources (spot versus futures, different times), so compare only within a row.

What moved markets on Wednesday

The Fed. The Federal Open Market Committee kept the target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, both preferring a quarter-point increase (Federal Reserve statement, 2:00 p.m. EDT). The statement describes economic activity as expanding at a strong pace and says inflation remains elevated. Cappnotes reports that Chair Kevin Warsh declined to prejudge December. CME FedWatch put the chance of a December hike at about 78%, down from about 84% before the decision (finanzen.at); Cappnotes cites 82% on Polymarket and 81% on Kalshi. These are market-implied probabilities, not a forecast by this site. The 10-year yield rose to 5.044% by the close.

Chips and AI. Technology was the best S&P 500 sector (+0.80%) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 1.75% (11,684.00 per Cappnotes, 11,674 per TradingKey). Oracle jumped 10.58% to $144.34 after projecting $30 billion of free cash flow for fiscal 2029, and the SK Hynix ADR rose 13.3% after record third-quarter results (TradingKey). Utilities (-0.84%) and real estate (-0.73%) lagged (Cappnotes).

After the close: Alphabet and Microsoft. Per Cappnotes, Alphabet fell 10.12% after hours on its first revenue and earnings miss in nearly four years, even though Google Cloud revenue reached $30.71 billion; it held 2026 capital spending at $195 billion to $205 billion and expects 2027 spending above $300 billion. Microsoft rose 2.63% after revenue of $92.28 billion beat the $90.69 billion estimate and Azure grew 48%. Other reports put Microsoft’s move at nearly 3% (AP) and over 5% (finanzen.at), probably because they were taken at different times. Cappnotes also lists ServiceNow down 17.87%, Chipotle up 7.21% and Vertiv up 16.48% after results. I have not seen the companies’ own releases, so treat these as press reports.

Oil and the Gulf. WTI settled back above $100 and Brent’s December contract at $115.32. Cappnotes reports that Houthi forces attacked Aden airport and that a senior Iranian official called a new Qatari draft deal unacceptable; this morning finanzen.at says Brent is lower as diplomacy continues, with President Trump saying mediated talks are under way. These are press reports that I have not independently confirmed.

Europe. European stocks were muted on Wednesday: the DAX gained 0.44%, the FTSE 100 0.07%, the STOXX 600 finished about flat and the CAC 40 slipped slightly. This morning the STOXX 600 was up 0.11% at 644.80 at 08:06 GMT, with energy up about 1% and technology down about 0.7% after Alphabet; the FTSE 100 was up about 0.3% (Reuters via Business Recorder). Shell reported third-quarter profit of $10.81 billion, its highest since 2022, and raised its buyback, and its shares rose 2.6%; Airbus gained 3.2% after keeping its full-year forecasts despite mixed quarterly results (same report).

Overnight in Asia

Asian markets were mixed and chip-heavy markets slid after Alphabet and Samsung. According to AP (published 05:03 UTC), Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.2% at 64,073.17, South Korea’s Kospi down 2.2% at 5,880.25, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up less than 0.1% at 23,101.86, the Shanghai Composite down 0.9% at 3,647.12 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% at 8,888.50, while Taiwan’s Taiex fell 1.9%. Samsung Electronics dropped 5.4% even after strong quarterly results because its shareholder-return plans disappointed some investors, while SK Hynix rose 1.6%. A later Investing.com report (updated 03:38, time zone not stated) has the Kospi closing down 1.2% after falling as much as 3%, the Hang Seng down 0.5% and the Nikkei up 1%, so these are mid-session readings that differ between outlets. Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 1.2% in Asian trading (Investing.com), and finanzen.at describes US futures as mixed with the Nasdaq 100 down more than 1%.

Thursday, October 29: what is scheduled

Sources: GDP, income, spending, PCE and claims consensus are medians of a Wall Street Journal economist survey reported by Dow Jones via MarketScreener (October 28, 2026), cross-checked against TraderFactor; release times and the list of data from Kiplinger. The ECB decision time is from TraderFactor (one calendar, financecalendar.com, lists it an hour earlier, so check the ECB site), and the expectation of a hold at 2.50% from Reuters via Business Recorder. Earnings times come from Cappnotes (Merck, Mastercard, Caterpillar before the open; Amazon and Strategy after the close), the Amazon estimate from financecalendar.com and Intel from Investing.com; I did not find the companies’ own announcements, so check their investor-relations pages. One morning wrap puts the PCE release on Friday, but Kiplinger, Cappnotes and the other sources above all say Thursday. Consensus varies by provider and release times can change.

The Fed’s hold leaves today’s PCE data and the ECB’s tone as the next tests: a hotter inflation print would strengthen the case for a December hike that markets already price as likely, and the ECB, which has already raised rates twice this year according to TraderFactor, is expected to stay on hold while investors listen for Christine Lagarde’s comments on French bond yields. On the corporate side, our earnings previews cover (Merck, Mondelez, Altria), all listed to report today; confirm report dates with each company.

The rest of the week

On Friday the Bank of Japan concludes its meeting and is widely expected to hold its policy rate at 1.25% (Investing.com), the third-quarter Employment Cost Index comes at 8:30 a.m. ET and the Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m. ET, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speak at midday (Kiplinger). The Fed raised its target range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on September 16 and held on October 28; the next meeting dates are on the Federal Reserve calendar. For yesterday’s levels, see our Wednesday edition.

Sources

• Federal Reserve: FOMC statement (October 28, 2026)
• Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendar
• Market-data summaries and news, not primary sources: Cappnotes (October 28, 2026); TradingKey (October 28, 2026); AP via News4Jax (October 29, 2026); Investing.com (October 29, 2026); finanzen.at (October 29, 2026); Reuters via Business Recorder (October 29, 2026); MarketScreener / Dow Jones data week ahead (October 28, 2026); TraderFactor (October 29, 2026); Kiplinger weekly calendar; financecalendar.com (October 29, 2026)

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Figures come from the sources listed, as of the times stated, and may be revised. Market-data summaries can differ slightly from official exchange figures. Confirm current prices with your broker. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital.