Altria Group (NYSE: MO) reports third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, October 29, 2026. The company plans to issue its press release at about 7:00 a.m. Eastern, followed by a listen-only webcast at 9:00 a.m. Eastern (1:00 p.m. and 3:00 p.m. in Bucharest). In July it narrowed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.61 to $5.72. This preview lines up the last four quarters against the same quarters a year earlier, works out what the guidance implies for the second half, and covers analyst consensus, the dividend and what to watch.
The recent quarters, each against the same quarter a year earlier
| Metric | Q3 2025 (vs Q3 2024) | Q4 2025 (vs Q4 2024) | Q1 2026 (vs Q1 2025) | Q2 2026 (vs Q2 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues net of excise taxes | $5,251 million (-1.7% from $5,344 million) | $5,079 million (-0.5% from $5,106 million) | $4,758 million (+5.3% from $4,519 million) | $5,356 million (+1.2% from $5,290 million) |
| Adjusted diluted EPS | $1.45 (from $1.40: +3.6%) | $1.30 (from $1.30: unchanged) | $1.32 (from $1.23: +7.3%) | $1.48 (from $1.44: +2.8%) |
| Smokeable products adjusted OCI (operating company income) | $2,956 million (from $2,935 million: +0.7%) | $2,643 million (from $2,709 million: -2.4%) | $2,676 million (from $2,518 million: +6.3%) | $3,018 million (from $2,947 million: +2.4%) |
| Domestic cigarette shipment volume (reported) | -8.2% | -7.9% | -2.4% | -3.2% |
| on! nicotine pouch shipments | 42.2 million cans (from 41.9 million: +0.7%) | 44.2 million cans (from 43.9 million: +0.7%) | 46.2 million cans (from 39.3 million: +17.6%) | 49.9 million cans (from 52.1 million: -4.2%) |
Sources: the four Altria earnings releases listed under Sources (Q3 2025 on October 30, 2025; Q4 2025 on January 29, 2026; Q1 2026 on April 30, 2026; Q2 2026 on July 30, 2026). Revenues net of excise taxes are the company’s headline revenue measure; where the prior-year dollar figure is not printed in the release, I derived it as net revenues minus excise taxes (Q3 2024: $6,259 million minus $915 million; Q4 2024: $5,974 million minus $868 million; Q1 2025: $5,259 million minus $740 million; Q2 2025: $6,102 million minus $812 million), and each result matches the percentage change the company reports. The EPS and OCI percentage changes in the table are my calculations from the figures in the releases. Adjusted diluted EPS excludes items management considers outside underlying operations, such as restructuring charges, asset impairments, litigation charges and amortization of intangibles, so it can differ from reported (GAAP) EPS: $1.41 (Q3 2025), $0.66 (Q4 2025), $1.30 (Q1 2026) and $1.37 (Q2 2026), against $1.34, $1.79, $0.63 and $1.41 a year earlier.
Full-year guidance: what changed in 2026
| Metric (full year 2026) | January 29, 2026 (with Q4 2025) | April 30, 2026 (with Q1) | July 30, 2026 (with Q2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted diluted EPS | $5.56 to $5.72 | $5.56 to $5.72 | $5.61 to $5.72 |
| Growth on the 2025 base of $5.42 | +2.5% to +5.5% | +2.5% to +5.5% | +3.5% to +5.5% |
Sources: the Altria releases of January 29, April 30 and July 30, 2026. Full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS was $5.42, up 4.4% from $5.19. In the July release the company also raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to $375 million to $450 million (from $300 million to $375 million), mainly for the consolidation of its smokeless-tobacco facilities. It said its guidance assumes moderated e-vapor industry growth, increased macroeconomic uncertainty for adult nicotine consumers, and no return of NJOY ACE to the market in 2026, and that it expects a larger benefit from cigarette import and export activity in the second half than in the first.
What the guidance implies for the second half (my calculation)
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS, full year 2025 (company) | $5.42 |
| Adjusted EPS, first half 2025 (Q1 $1.23 + Q2 $1.44) | $2.67 |
| Adjusted EPS, second half 2025 (Q3 $1.45 + Q4 $1.30) | $2.75 |
| Adjusted EPS, first half 2026 (Q1 $1.32 + Q2 $1.48) | $2.80 (+4.9% vs first half 2025) |
| Full-year 2026 guidance (July 30) | $5.61 to $5.72 |
| Implied second half 2026 | $2.81 to $2.92 |
| Implied growth, second half 2026 vs second half 2025 | +2.2% to +6.2% |
In other words, the guidance leaves the second half growing more slowly than the first half at the low end and a little faster at the high end. These are my own calculations from company figures; Altria does not publish a second-half forecast.
What analysts expect, and the share price
This section uses third-party data, which is not from the company; each figure carries its source and date where one was available. Consensus is for the same quarter, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
| Q3 metric | Consensus for Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 actual (company) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted diluted EPS | $1.51 (Zacks, article dated October 22, 2026; the same figure appears, undated, at FactSet via TradingView and at Earnings Whispers); $1.50 in a Hudson Labs preview dated October 6, 2026 | $1.45 | +4.1% (at $1.51) |
| Revenues net of excise taxes | About $5.3 billion (Zacks, October 22, 2026); $5.31 billion (FactSet via TradingView, undated); $5,319 million (Hudson Labs, October 6, 2026). The sources do not name the revenue measure; the figures match the net-of-excise basis | $5,251 million | +1.1% to +1.3% |
Zacks notes that Altria reported $1.48 for Q2 against a $1.50 consensus, and that it has beaten consensus EPS in two of the last four quarters. If Q3 comes in at the $1.51 consensus, the implied second half of $2.81 to $2.92 leaves $1.30 to $1.41 for the fourth quarter, against $1.30 in Q4 2025: between unchanged and about +8.5%, quarter against quarter (my calculation). A beat in Q3, or another change to guidance, would shift that picture.
On Friday, October 23, 2026, MO closed at $74.31, down 2.31% on the day (source: StockAnalysis, October 23, 2026, 4:00 p.m. EDT close). Against the July full-year guidance, this gives (my calculation):
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price (close, Oct 23, 2026) | $74.31 |
| Price to 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $5.61 to $5.72 | about 13.0x to 13.2x |
| Quarterly dividend of $1.11, $4.44 a year | yield about 6.0% on the price above |
| Annual dividend as a share of guided adjusted EPS | about 78% to 79% |
Price and consensus move daily, so check both with your broker before the release. MarketBeat (October 18, 2026) shows a payout ratio of 93.67% and a consensus analyst rating of “Hold” with an average price target of $70.11; its payout ratio is calculated on a different earnings basis than the adjusted guidance used here.
What to watch on October 29
- Adjusted EPS against $1.45 in Q3 2025 and against the $1.51 consensus. Adjusted EPS grew 7.3% in Q1 and 2.8% in Q2; consensus asks for +4.1% in Q3.
- Smokeable products. Adjusted OCI was $2,956 million in Q3 2025, with a margin of 64.4%; in Q2 2026 it was $3,018 million at 64.8%. Reported domestic cigarette shipment volume fell 8.2% in Q3 2025 and 3.2% in Q2 2026 (an estimated 4.5% after adjusting for trade inventory movements, in an industry that Altria estimates fell about 5%).
- Import and export timing. Management said the benefit from cigarette import and export activity should be larger in the second half than in the first, and more balanced between Q3 and Q4. How that benefit splits will affect the Q3 and Q4 pattern.
- on! nicotine pouches. Shipments were 49.9 million cans in Q2, down 4.2% from a year earlier after +17.6% in Q1; on! held 14.4% of the nicotine pouch category at retail, down 1.7 points, while pouches reached 59.9% of the oral tobacco category. Q3 2025 shipments were 42.2 million cans. Oral tobacco net revenues fell 5.3% to $713 million in Q2.
- Guidance. Whether the $5.61 to $5.72 range is narrowed, raised or left alone, and how the company describes the fourth quarter.
- Reported against adjusted EPS. Reported EPS was $0.66 against adjusted $1.30 in Q4 2025, and $1.37 against $1.48 in Q2 2026; the reconciliation in the release shows which items explain the gap.
The dividend
Altria’s quarterly dividend is $1.11 per share ($4.44 a year), up from $1.06 (+4.7%, my calculation). The Business Wire announcement is syndicated under August 27, 2026, but I could not open it, so the dates here come from MarketBeat (October 18, 2026), 24/7 Wall St (September 4, 2026) and Goldesel.de (August 27, 2026), which agree: the ex-dividend and record date was September 15, 2026, and the dividend was paid on October 9, 2026. Buying shares now therefore does not earn this payment. I have not found an announcement of the next dividend.
For investors in Europe
- MO pays in U.S. dollars, and U.S. withholding tax applies by default; the rate for non-U.S. investors depends on your broker having a valid Form W-8BEN. See our W-8BEN guide.
- The dollar and euro exchange rate moves the euro value of the dividend independently of anything Altria reports.
Sources
- Altria: webcast notice for the 2026 third-quarter and nine-months results (press release, via Finviz)
- Altria: Q3 2025 results, Form 8-K exhibit (October 30, 2025)
- Altria: Q4 and full-year 2025 results and 2026 guidance, Form 8-K exhibit (January 29, 2026)
- Altria: Q1 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit (April 30, 2026)
- Altria: Q2 2026 results and narrowed guidance, Form 8-K exhibit (July 30, 2026)
- Third-party data (consensus, price and dividend dates), not from the company: Zacks Equity Research via Yahoo Finance (October 22, 2026); TradingView / FactSet (undated); Hudson Labs (October 6, 2026); StockAnalysis (October 23, 2026 close); MarketBeat (October 18, 2026); Goldesel.de (August 27, 2026); 24/7 Wall St (September 4, 2026)
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Company figures are taken from the releases listed; consensus, the share price and the dividend dates come from the third-party sources listed, as of the dates stated; and the second-half, fourth-quarter and valuation figures are my own arithmetic, not a company forecast. Confirm current figures with your broker or the company’s investor relations page. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital, and a dividend payment is never guaranteed.
