Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) is due to report third-quarter 2026 results after the New York Stock Exchange closes on Monday, November 9, 2026. The company will hold its conference call and webcast the next day, Tuesday, November 10, at 1 p.m. Eastern (12 p.m. Central), available through the investor section of oxy.com. The last two quarters changed the picture: adjusted earnings per share were $2.40 in the second quarter against $0.26 a year earlier, as the realized oil price rose to $96.78 a barrel from $63.76, and the shares have since moved lower, to $56.36 on November 5 from $64.00 on October 30 (sources below). Below: the recent quarters, each compared with the same quarter a year earlier, what the company’s guidance implies for the rest of 2026 (my arithmetic), analyst consensus, the dividend, and what to watch.
The recent quarters, each against the same quarter a year earlier
| Metric (each quarter vs the same quarter a year earlier) | Q3 2025 (the base for Q3 2026) | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total net sales (continuing operations) | $5,519M vs $5,955M, -7.3% | $5,112M vs $5,637M, -9.3% | $5,230M vs $5,704M, -8.3% | $8,065M vs $5,258M, +53.4% |
| Adjusted EPS, continuing operations (non-GAAP; August 2026 release) | $0.51 (year-earlier not given in that release) | $0.17 (year-earlier not given in that release) | $1.06 vs $0.73, +45.2% | $2.40 vs $0.26, +823.1% |
| Adjusted EPS as shown in the February 2026 release (non-GAAP) | $0.64 vs $1.00, -36.0% | $0.31 vs $0.80, -61.3% | not comparable (see note) | not comparable (see note) |
| Worldwide production (MBOE/D) | 1,465 vs 1,412, +3.8% | 1,481 vs 1,463, +1.2% | 1,426 vs 1,391, +2.5% | 1,433 vs 1,400, +2.4% |
| Worldwide realized oil price ($/bbl) | $64.78 vs $75.33, -14.0% | $59.22 vs $69.73, -15.1% | $69.91 vs $71.07, -1.6% | $96.78 vs $63.76, +51.8% |
| Free cash flow before working capital (non-GAAP) | $1,470M vs $1,514M, -2.9% | $963M vs $1,350M, -28.7% | $1,747M vs $1,152M, +51.6% | $3,021M vs $754M, +300.7% |
Sources: Occidental results releases for the third quarter of 2025 (November 2025), the fourth quarter of 2025 (February 18, 2026), the first quarter of 2026 (May 2026) and the second quarter of 2026 (August 2026). The percentage changes are my calculation from the two figures shown in each cell, and each column compares one quarter only with the same quarter of the previous year. A note on the basis: Occidental sold OxyChem (the sale closed on January 2, 2026), and its results are shown as discontinued operations. Net sales, production and oil prices for the 2025 quarters are the same in every release listed, but adjusted EPS is not: the August 2026 release shows the 2025 quarters at $0.73, $0.26, $0.51 and $0.17, while the February 2026 release showed $0.87, $0.39, $0.64 and $0.31 (the earlier set is higher by roughly the discontinued chemical earnings, which is my reading; the release does not say so in words). That is why the table shows both sets and why the Q3 and Q4 2025 columns cannot be compared with Q1 and Q2 2026 on the old basis. Free cash flow in the Q3 and Q4 2025 columns is as shown in the February release; the August release shows $1,476M and $1,064M for those two quarters.
In the second quarter, the reported pre-tax income of the oil and gas segment was $2,849M against $934M a year earlier, and that of the midstream and marketing segment was $1,338M against $39M (both reported figures, before adjustments). Principal debt was reduced by $1.9 billion to $11.8 billion, against the company’s $10.0 billion milestone.
What the guidance implies for the rest of 2026 (my calculation)
Occidental does not guide earnings per share. The figures below were given by the chief financial officer on the second-quarter call (transcript dated August 2026) and are compared with reported results. I did not find an absolute full-year production figure (the CFO said the full-year guidance was raised, by 7,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day over the original, adjusted for a Permian enhanced-oil-recovery transaction), so I do not calculate a fourth-quarter production figure.
| Guidance item (Q2 2026 call) | Guidance | Comparison (my calculation) |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 worldwide production | 1,400 to 1,440 MBOE/D | -4.4% to -1.7% vs 1,465 in Q3 2025; -2.3% to +0.5% vs 1,433 in Q2 2026 |
| Q3 2026 domestic operating cost (LOE) | $8.75 per BOE | full-year 2026 guidance $8.10 per BOE, maintained |
| Full-year 2026 capital spending | $5.5 billion to $5.9 billion (maintained, weighted to the first half) | first half reported: $1,554M + $1,589M = $3,143M ($3,093M net of non-controlling interest); about $2.4 billion to $2.8 billion left for the second half depending on the basis, roughly $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion a quarter against about $1.55 billion to $1.59 billion in each of Q1 and Q2 |
| Midstream and marketing, full year | raised by $300 million; Q3 income expected lower as the Waha to Gulf Coast spread narrows | no Q3 figure given |
| Principal debt | $11.8 billion at the end of Q2; target $10.0 billion | $1.8 billion still to go on the Q2 figure |
This is arithmetic on rounded guidance and a transcript summary, not a company forecast; the capex comparison depends on whether the guidance uses the gross or the net-of-non-controlling-interest basis, which the transcript does not state. For 2027 the CFO gave a starting capital point of $5.9 billion, which he said supports relatively flat production.
What analysts expect, and the share price
This section uses third-party data, which is not from the company; each figure carries its source and date. The consensus is for the same quarter, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
| Q3 metric | Consensus for Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 (company) | Change (my calculation) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.42 (Barchart via Yahoo Finance, Oct 27, 2026); $1.43 (Zacks via Yahoo Finance, Nov 5, 2026); $1.45 (TipRanks, page with prices as of Oct 30, 2026) | $0.51 on the continuing-operations basis (August 2026 release); $0.64 as shown in the February 2026 release | +178% to +184% against $0.51; +122% to +127% against $0.64 (Zacks shows +123.4% against $0.64) |
| Revenue | $6.73 billion (Zacks, Nov 5, 2026) | total revenues and other income $5,613M restated; $6,717M as originally reported | about +19.9% against the restated figure; Zacks shows +0.26%, which matches the original figure. I could not confirm which revenue line the consensus tracks |
Ratings and targets: Barchart (Oct 27, 2026) counted 27 analysts, of whom 10 rate the shares Strong Buy, 1 Moderate Buy and 16 Hold, with a mean price target of $69.78; the TipRanks page (price as of Oct 30) shows an average target of $70.40, in a range of $58 to $82. These are third-party views, not a recommendation from this blog.
Zacks puts the November 5 close at $56.36 (-1.69% on the day); the TipRanks page shows $64.00 at the close on October 30, so the shares were about 11.9% lower over that stretch (my calculation). The figures below use the November 5 close, with the October 30 close for comparison:
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price (close, Nov 5, 2026; Zacks via Yahoo Finance) | $56.36 (Oct 30 close, TipRanks: $64.00) |
| Quarterly dividend of $0.28, indicated annual rate $1.12 (company) | yield 1.99% on $56.36; 1.75% on $64.00 |
| Sum of the last four reported adjusted EPS figures on the continuing basis (Q3 2025 $0.51 + Q4 2025 $0.17 + Q1 2026 $1.06 + Q2 2026 $2.40) | $4.14 |
| Price against that sum | about 13.6x |
| Annual dividend of $1.12 as a share of that sum | about 27% |
The four-quarter sum is simple addition of the quarterly figures, so it can differ slightly from a figure calculated on full-year share counts, and the second quarter alone is more than half of it. Price and consensus move daily, so check both with your broker before the release.
What to watch on November 9 and 10
- Adjusted EPS against $0.51 in Q3 2025 (the company’s continuing-operations figure; $0.64 on the old basis) and against a consensus of about $1.42 to $1.45. Q2 2026 was $2.40, so the consensus already assumes a lower figure than the second quarter.
- Production against the 1,400 to 1,440 MBOE/D guidance and the 1,465 of Q3 2025 (Q2 2026: 1,433). The CFO pointed to Gulf of America maintenance timing and weather, and said the Middle East situation was fluid.
- The realized oil price against $96.78 in Q2 2026 and $64.78 in Q3 2025. In Q2 the company’s WTI average was $92.79 against $63.74 a year earlier.
- Midstream and marketing income against the $1,338M pre-tax of Q2, which the company expects to fall in Q3 as the Waha to Gulf Coast spread narrows.
- Free cash flow and debt. Free cash flow before working capital against $3,021M in Q2 and $1,476M in Q3 2025 (August release basis), and principal debt against $11.8 billion and the $10.0 billion milestone.
- Capital spending against the $5.5 billion to $5.9 billion full-year range, and any comment on the $5.9 billion starting point for 2027.
The dividend
Occidental pays a regular quarterly dividend of $0.28 per share, an indicated annual rate of $1.12. It has risen in steps: $0.24 through the payment of January 15, 2026, $0.26 for the payments of April 15 and July 15, 2026 (+8.3%), and $0.28 for the payment of October 15, 2026 to holders of record on September 10, 2026 (+7.7%), according to the company’s releases. A further $0.28 dividend appears in the dividend tracker Quantisnow as declared on October 26, 2026, payable January 15, 2027 to holders of record on December 10, 2026, and the Barchart preview of October 27 also gives January 15, 2027 as the payment date; I could not open the company’s own announcement, so confirm the dates with your broker. Since U.S. markets moved to one-day settlement in May 2024, the ex-dividend date is normally the same as the record date. On the call the CFO said dividend growth will be measured and tied to balance-sheet strength and sustainable cash flow.
For investors in Europe
- Occidental pays in dollars and U.S. withholding tax applies by default; the rate for non-U.S. investors depends on your broker having a valid Form W-8BEN. See our W-8BEN guide.
- Oil prices and the dollar both affect the euro value of your holding and of the dividend.
Sources
- Occidental: to announce third quarter results Monday, November 9, 2026; conference call Tuesday, November 10, 2026
- Occidental: second quarter 2026 results (Form 8-K exhibit, SEC)
- Occidental: first quarter 2026 results (Form 8-K exhibit, SEC)
- Occidental: fourth quarter 2025 results (February 18, 2026)
- Occidental: third quarter 2025 results
- Occidental Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (The Motley Fool), source of the guidance figures
- Third-party data (consensus, price, dividend declaration), not from the company: Zacks via Yahoo Finance (November 5, 2026); Barchart via Yahoo Finance (October 27, 2026); TipRanks: OXY (price as of October 30, 2026); Quantisnow: OXY dividend history
Get new articles by email
Ex-dividend dates, earnings previews and P2P platform changes, straight to your inbox. Unsubscribe anytime.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Company figures are taken from the releases listed; guidance figures come from the call transcript listed; consensus, price and the dividend declaration come from the third-party sources listed, as of the dates stated; and the percentage changes, implied capital spending, yield and ratios are my own arithmetic, not a company forecast. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital, and a dividend payment is never guaranteed.
