The Home Depot (NYSE: HD) reports third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, before the U.S. market opens, with the earnings webcast at 9:00 a.m. Eastern. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance in both May and August, after a second quarter in which adjusted EPS rose 5.1%. This preview lines up the recent quarters against the same quarters a year earlier, works out what the guidance implies for the second half, and covers analyst consensus, the dividend and what to watch.
The recent quarters, each against the same quarter a year earlier
| Metric | Q3 FY2025 (vs Q3 FY2024) | Q4 FY2025 (vs Q4 FY2024; 13 vs 14 weeks) | Q1 FY2026 (vs Q1 FY2025) | Q2 FY2026 (vs Q2 FY2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales | $41,352 million (+2.8% from $40,217 million) | $38,198 million (-3.8% from $39,704 million) | $41,765 million (+4.8% from $39,856 million) | $47,861 million (+5.7% from $45,277 million) |
| Comparable sales | +0.2% (U.S. +0.1%) | +0.4% (U.S. +0.3%) | +0.6% (U.S. +0.4%; year earlier -0.3%) | +1.7% (U.S. +1.3%; year earlier +1.0%) |
| Adjusted diluted EPS | $3.74 (from $3.78: -1.1%) | $2.72 (from $3.13: -13.1%) | $3.43 (from $3.56: -3.7%) | $4.92 (from $4.68: +5.1%) |
| Diluted EPS (GAAP) | $3.62 (from $3.67: -1.4%) | $2.58 (from $3.02: -14.6%) | $3.30 (from $3.45: -4.3%) | $4.79 (from $4.58: +4.6%) |
Sources: the four Home Depot earnings releases listed under Sources (Q3 FY2025 on November 18, 2025; Q4 FY2025 on February 24, 2026; Q1 FY2026 on May 19, 2026; Q2 FY2026 on August 18, 2026). Adjusted EPS is the company’s non-GAAP measure; in the guidance for fiscal 2026 the company excludes about $0.50 a share of after-tax amortization of acquired intangibles. The Q4 FY2025 quarter had 13 weeks against 14 weeks a year earlier; the company put the extra week at about $2.5 billion of sales and about $0.30 of EPS, so the -13.1% is not a like-for-like decline. In Q2 FY2026, comparable customer transactions fell 1.0% while comparable average ticket rose 2.8%. Total sales grew faster than comparable sales in Q1 (+4.8% against +0.6%) and Q2 (+5.7% against +1.7%); the figures I reviewed do not break out how much of that gap came from acquired businesses (the Q2 release names SRS and GMS) and new stores.
Full-year guidance: unchanged since February
| Metric (fiscal 2026) | Guidance (February 24; reaffirmed May 19 and August 18) |
|---|---|
| Total sales growth | approximately 2.5% to 4.5% |
| Comparable sales growth | approximately flat to +2.0% |
| New stores | approximately 15 |
| Gross margin | approximately 33.1% |
| Operating margin | approximately 12.4% to 12.6% |
| Adjusted operating margin | approximately 12.8% to 13.0% |
| Effective tax rate | approximately 24.3% |
| Net interest expense | approximately $2.3 billion |
| Diluted EPS growth | approximately flat to +4.0% from $14.23 |
| Adjusted diluted EPS growth | approximately flat to +4.0% from $14.69 |
| Capital expenditures | approximately 2.5% of total sales |
Sources: the Home Depot releases of February 24, May 19 and August 18, 2026. The August release says the guidance includes IEEPA tariff refunds, which are expected to partially offset unplanned fuel, energy and other product input costs during the year. Last year the company used its Q3 release to update its fiscal 2025 guidance, to adjusted EPS down about 5.0% from $15.24.
What the guidance implies for the second half (my calculation)
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Adjusted diluted EPS, fiscal 2025 (company) | $14.69 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance (flat to +4.0%) | $14.69 to $15.28 |
| Adjusted EPS, first half fiscal 2026 (Q1 $3.43 + Q2 $4.92) | $8.35 (+1.3% vs $8.24 in the first half of fiscal 2025) |
| Adjusted EPS, second half fiscal 2025 (Q3 $3.74 + Q4 $2.72) | $6.46 |
| Implied second half fiscal 2026 | $6.34 to $6.93 |
| Implied growth, second half vs second half fiscal 2025 | -1.9% to +7.3% |
| Net sales, fiscal 2025 (company) | $164,683 million |
| Fiscal 2026 net sales at +2.5% to +4.5% | about $168.8 billion to $172.1 billion |
| Net sales, first half fiscal 2026 (company) | $89,626 million (+5.3% from $85,133 million) |
| Implied net sales, second half fiscal 2026 | about $79.2 billion to $82.5 billion (-0.5% to +3.7% vs $79,550 million) |
In other words, the guidance leaves the second half anywhere from a small decline to solid growth in adjusted EPS, and a slower sales pace than the first half, which grew 5.3%. The top of the range would need the second half to grow faster than the first half’s +1.3%. These are my own calculations from company figures; the company does not publish a second-half forecast.
What analysts expect, and the share price
This section uses third-party data, which is not from the company; each figure carries its source and date. Consensus is for the same quarter, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
| Q3 metric | Consensus for Q3 FY2026 | Q3 FY2025 actual (company) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.86 (Zacks, article dated November 10, 2026) | $3.74 | +3.2% |
| Net sales | $42.72 billion (Zacks, November 10, 2026) | $41,352 million | +3.3% |
Zacks also reports that the consensus EPS estimate was revised 0.23% lower over the previous 30 days, that the stock carries a Zacks Rank of #3, and that in Q2 the company reported $4.92 against a consensus of $4.71, which Zacks calls a 4.46% surprise. I did not find a consensus for comparable sales from a source I could cite.
If Q3 comes in at the $3.86 consensus, the implied second half of $6.34 to $6.93 leaves $2.48 to $3.07 for the fourth quarter, against $2.72 in Q4 FY2025: between roughly -8.8% and +12.9%, quarter against quarter (my calculation; both are 13-week quarters). A beat or miss in Q3, or a change in guidance, would shift that picture.
On Wednesday, November 11, 2026, HD was trading at about $348.35 at 1:35 p.m., down 0.7% on the day and up about 1.3% since the start of the year (source: Schaeffer’s Research via Finviz, November 11, 2026; intraday, not a closing price). Against the company’s guidance, this gives (my calculation):
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price (intraday, Nov 11, 2026) | $348.35 |
| Price to fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS of $14.69 | about 23.7x |
| Price to fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $14.69 to $15.28 | about 22.8x to 23.7x |
| Quarterly dividend of $2.33, $9.32 a year | yield about 2.7% on the price above |
| Annual dividend as a share of guided adjusted EPS | about 61% to 63% |
Price and consensus move daily, so check both with your broker before the release.
What to watch on November 17
- Adjusted EPS against $3.74 in Q3 FY2025 and against the $3.86 consensus. Adjusted EPS fell 3.7% in Q1 and rose 5.1% in Q2; consensus asks for +3.2% in Q3.
- Comparable sales. They rose 0.6% in Q1 and 1.7% in Q2 (+1.2% for the first half), against full-year guidance of approximately flat to +2.0%. The year-earlier Q3 comparison is +0.2%.
- Transactions against ticket. In Q2, comparable transactions fell 1.0% while average ticket rose 2.8%. Whether traffic stabilises is part of the picture.
- Guidance. The company reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance in May and August. Whether it does so again, narrows the range or changes it will matter for the implied second-half numbers above.
- Gross margin and costs. The guide is about 33.1% for the year, with tariff refunds included to offset higher fuel, energy and product input costs.
- Cash returned to shareholders. Cash dividends paid were $4,643 million in the first half against $4,574 million a year earlier. The releases I reviewed do not report share repurchase amounts.
The dividend
On August 20, 2026, Home Depot declared a quarterly dividend of $2.33 per share ($9.32 a year), the same rate as the previous quarter. The record date was September 3, 2026 and it was payable on September 17, 2026, so buying shares now does not earn this payment. The $2.33 rate came from a 1.3% increase announced on February 24, 2026 (from $2.30, my calculation). I did not find a declaration for the next quarterly payment in the sources I reviewed; check the company’s investor relations page after the results.
For investors in Europe
- HD pays in U.S. dollars, and U.S. withholding tax applies by default; the rate for non-U.S. investors depends on your broker having a valid Form W-8BEN. See our W-8BEN guide.
- The dollar and euro exchange rate moves the euro value of the dividend independently of anything Home Depot reports.
Sources
- Home Depot investor relations: events and presentations (Q3 FY2026 earnings date and webcast)
- Home Depot: Q3 FY2025 results, Form 8-K exhibit (November 18, 2025)
- Home Depot: Q4 and fiscal 2025 results, dividend increase and fiscal 2026 guidance (press release, February 24, 2026)
- Home Depot: Q1 FY2026 results (May 19, 2026) and the same release with the full tables (StockTitan)
- Home Depot: Q2 FY2026 results (press release, August 18, 2026)
- Home Depot: quarterly dividend declaration (August 20, 2026)
- Third-party data (consensus and price), not from the company: Zacks Equity Research via Yahoo Finance (article dated November 10, 2026); Schaeffer’s Research via Finviz (November 11, 2026)
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Company figures are taken from the releases listed; consensus and the share price come from the third-party sources listed, as of the dates stated; and the second-half, fourth-quarter and valuation figures are my own arithmetic, not a company forecast. Confirm current figures with your broker or the company’s investor relations page. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital, and a dividend payment is never guaranteed.
