Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) reports third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, November 5, 2026. The release is due at 7:00 a.m. Eastern and the conference call starts at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, with the webcast on the company’s investor relations site. Duke has reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 at each of its last two reports, and its quarterly dividend, paid for 100 consecutive years, was raised in July. This preview lines up the last four quarters against the same quarters a year earlier, works out what guidance implies for the second half, and covers analyst consensus, the dividend and what to watch.
The recent quarters, each against the same quarter a year earlier
| Metric | Q3 2025 (vs Q3 2024) | Q4 2025 (vs Q4 2024) | Q1 2026 (vs Q1 2025) | Q2 2026 (vs Q2 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total operating revenues | $8,542 million (+4.8% from $8,154 million) | $7,938 million (+7.9% from $7,360 million) | $9,178 million (+11.3% from $8,249 million) | $7,592 million (+1.1% from $7,508 million) |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.81 (from $1.62: +11.7%) | $1.50 (from $1.66: -9.6%) | $1.93 (from $1.76: +9.7%) | $1.43 (from $1.25: +14.4%) |
| Reported (GAAP) EPS | $1.81 (from $1.60) | $1.50 (from $1.54) | $1.97 (from $1.76) | $1.38 (from $1.25) |
| Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, adjusted segment income | $1,658 million (from $1,464 million: +13.3%) | $1,209 million (from $1,238 million: -2.3%) | $1,404 million (from $1,276 million: +10.0%) | $1,310 million (from $1,194 million: +9.7%) |
Sources: the four Duke Energy earnings releases (Form 8-K exhibits) listed under Sources. The percentage changes are my calculations from the figures in the releases. Adjusted EPS excludes special items. Quarterly EPS figures can differ from the full-year total by a cent because of share-count rounding: the four 2025 quarters add up to $6.32 against the reported full-year adjusted EPS of $6.31. Total retail electricity sales rose 0.5% in Q1 2026 (down 0.5% on a weather-normal basis) and 0.3% in Q2 2026 (up 1.3% weather-normal); the company said weather cost $0.02 per share in Q2 and volume added $0.08. In Q2, adjusted EPS of $1.43 beat the $1.30 consensus while revenue of $7.59 billion missed the $7.66 billion estimate (consensus figures: MarketBeat).
Full-year guidance and the long-term target
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance (set February 10, reaffirmed in May and August 2026) | $6.55 to $6.80 |
| 2025 adjusted EPS (company) | $6.31 |
| Guidance against 2025 (my calculation) | +3.8% to +7.8% (midpoint $6.675: +5.8%) |
| Long-term adjusted EPS growth target | 5% to 7% a year through 2030, off the 2025 midpoint of $6.30; the company expects to earn in the top half of the range beginning in 2028 |
Sources: Duke Energy’s Q4 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 releases. A year ago, the Q3 2025 release narrowed the 2025 range to $6.25 to $6.35 and the company ended the year at $6.31.
What the guidance implies for the second half (my calculation)
| Item | Adjusted EPS |
|---|---|
| Full year 2025 (company) | $6.31 |
| First half 2025 (company, six months) | $3.00 |
| Second half 2025 (full year minus first half; equals Q3 $1.81 + Q4 $1.50) | $3.31 |
| First half 2026 (Q1 $1.93 + Q2 $1.43; company six-month figure $3.36) | $3.36 (+12.0% vs first half 2025) |
| Full-year 2026 guidance | $6.55 to $6.80 |
| Implied second half 2026 | $3.19 to $3.44 |
| Implied growth, second half 2026 vs second half 2025 | -3.6% to +3.9% (midpoint +0.2%) |
In other words, after a first half that grew 12.0%, the guidance range leaves the second half between a decline of 3.6% and growth of 3.9%. These are my own calculations from company figures; the company does not publish a second-half forecast. Guidance has been reaffirmed rather than raised so far this year.
What analysts expect, and the share price
This section uses third-party data, which is not from the company; each figure carries its source and date. Consensus is for the same quarter, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
| Metric | Consensus | Year-earlier actual (company) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 adjusted EPS | $1.86 (MarketBeat, October 29, 2026; Zacks, October 20, 2026); $1.87 (Zacks, October 29, 2026) | $1.81 (Q3 2025) | +2.8% to +3.3% |
| Q3 2026 total operating revenues | $8.91 billion (MarketBeat, October 29, 2026); $8.9 billion (Zacks, October 29, 2026) | $8,542 million (Q3 2025) | +4.2% to +4.3% |
| Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS | $6.72 (Zacks, October 29, 2026) | $6.31 (2025) | +6.5% |
If Q3 comes in at the $1.86 consensus, the guidance range leaves $1.33 to $1.58 for the fourth quarter, against $1.50 in Q4 2025: between -11.3% and +5.3% (my calculation). The $6.72 full-year consensus would imply a fourth quarter of about $1.50, flat on a year earlier (my calculation, mixing two sources). Zacks showed a rank of #3 (Hold) on October 29, and MarketBeat listed a “Moderate Buy” consensus from nine Buy and nine Hold ratings with an average price target of $132.19 (October 29, 2026).
MarketBeat reported DUK opening at $123.60 on Thursday, October 29, 2026 (intraday data, not a closing price), against a 50-day average of $118.97 and a 200-day average of $124.16. On that price, against the guidance above (my calculation):
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price (MarketBeat, October 29, 2026) | $123.60 |
| Price to 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $6.55 to $6.80 | about 18.2x to 18.9x |
| Quarterly dividend of $1.085, $4.34 a year | yield about 3.5% on the price above |
| Annual dividend as a share of guided adjusted EPS | about 64% to 66% |
Price and consensus move daily, so check both with your broker before the release. MarketBeat shows a payout ratio of 65.17%, calculated on a different earnings basis than the adjusted guidance used here.
What to watch on November 5
- Adjusted EPS against $1.81 in Q3 2025 and against the $1.86 to $1.87 consensus. The year-earlier quarter was a strong one (+11.7%), while the first two quarters of 2026 grew 9.7% and 14.4%; consensus asks for +2.8% to +3.3%.
- Guidance. The $6.55 to $6.80 range has been left unchanged since February. A year ago the Q3 release narrowed the range; whether Duke narrows, holds or moves it now matters for the implied fourth quarter.
- Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment income, adjusted, against $1,658 million in Q3 2025. It grew 10.0% in Q1 and 9.7% in Q2.
- Retail volumes and weather. Total retail electricity sales were up 0.3% in Q2 (1.3% weather-normal). Weather was a $0.02 per-share drag in Q2 and Q3 2025 was described as milder than a year earlier.
- Revenue. Consensus is about $8.9 billion, +4.2% to +4.3%; Q2 revenue missed the consensus even as EPS beat it.
- The long-term target. The company has said 5% to 7% adjusted EPS growth through 2030, with earnings in the top half of the range from 2028. Any comment on that range will be read against the 2026 guidance.
The dividend
On July 14, 2026, Duke Energy declared a quarterly dividend of $1.085 per share ($4.34 a year), up $0.02 from $1.065, for record date August 14 and payment on September 16, 2026. The company’s dividend history page lists the next payment, also $1.085, with an ex-dividend date and record date of November 13, 2026 and payment on December 16, 2026, so shares bought before November 13 would receive it; confirm the dates with your broker. Duke says this is the 100th consecutive year in which it has paid a quarterly cash dividend on its common stock.
For investors in Europe
- DUK pays in U.S. dollars, and U.S. withholding tax applies by default; the rate for non-U.S. investors depends on your broker having a valid Form W-8BEN. See our W-8BEN guide.
- The dollar and euro exchange rate moves the euro value of the dividend independently of anything Duke reports.
Sources
- Duke Energy: Q3 2026 results announcement notice (release, call and webcast times)
- Duke Energy: Q3 2025 results, Form 8-K exhibit (November 2025)
- Duke Energy: Q4 and full-year 2025 results and 2026 guidance, Form 8-K exhibit (February 10, 2026)
- Duke Energy: Q1 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit (May 5, 2026)
- Duke Energy: Q2 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit (August 2026)
- Duke Energy: dividend history (investor relations)
- Duke Energy: dividend declaration of July 14, 2026 (press release as carried by Finviz)
- Third-party data (consensus, ratings and price), not from the company: MarketBeat (October 29, 2026); Zacks via Yahoo Finance (October 29, 2026); Zacks via Yahoo Finance (October 20, 2026)
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Company figures are taken from the releases listed; consensus, ratings and the share price come from the third-party sources listed, as of the dates stated; and the second-half, fourth-quarter, growth and valuation figures are my own arithmetic, not a company forecast. Confirm current figures with your broker or the company’s investor relations page. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital, and a dividend payment is never guaranteed.
