ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) reports third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, November 5, 2026, before the U.S. market opens, with the earnings webcast at 12:00 p.m. Eastern. Adjusted EPS fell 9.6% in the first quarter and then rose 128.2% in the second, when the company’s realized price per barrel of oil equivalent was 36% higher than a year earlier. This preview lines up the recent quarters against the same quarters a year earlier, works out what the production guidance implies for the fourth quarter, and covers analyst consensus, the dividend and what to watch.
The recent quarters, each against the same quarter a year earlier
| Metric | Q3 2025 (vs Q3 2024) | Q1 2026 (vs Q1 2025) | Q2 2026 (vs Q2 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (sales and other operating revenues) | $15,031 million (+15.3% from $13,041 million) | $15,761 million (-4.6% from $16,517 million) | $19,161 million (+36.8% from $14,004 million) |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.61 (from $1.78: -9.6%) | $1.89 (from $2.09: -9.6%) | $3.24 (from $1.42: +128.2%) |
| Adjusted earnings | $2,007 million (from $2,081 million: -3.6%) | $2,324 million (from $2,679 million: -13.3%) | $3,951 million (from $1,793 million: +120.4%) |
| Total production | 2,399 MBOED (from 1,917: +25.1%) | 2,309 MBOED (from 2,389: -3.3%) | 2,248 MBOED (from 2,391: -6.0%) |
| Total realized price per barrel of oil equivalent | $46.44 (from $54.18: -14.3%) | $50.36 (from $53.34: -5.6%) | $62.33 (from $45.77: +36.2%) |
Sources: the ConocoPhillips results releases for Q3 2025 (November 6, 2025), Q1 2026 (April 30, 2026) and Q2 2026 (August 6, 2026), plus the company’s Form 10-Q filings for revenue, which the releases do not show. The percentage changes are my calculations from the company figures. MBOED is thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. Adjusted EPS excludes special items; reported (GAAP) EPS was $1.38 against $1.76 in Q3 2025, $1.78 against $2.23 in Q1 2026 and $3.23 against $1.56 in Q2 2026. In the Q2 10-Q, total revenues and other income, which also include equity earnings, gains on dispositions and other income, were $19,522 million against $14,740 million (+32.4%). The Q3 2025 production jump compares with a Q3 2024 that came before the Marathon Oil acquisition, which closed in November 2024, so it is not organic growth; for Q2 2026 the company put pro forma underlying production at 2,248 MBOED against 2,346 MBOED a year earlier (-4%) and attributed the decline to the Middle East conflict’s effect on Qatar, among other items.
Full-year guidance: what the company has said
| Item | Latest guidance | Where it comes from |
|---|---|---|
| Production, full year 2026 | 2.295 to 2.325 million BOE per day (MMBOED) | Q1 release, April 30, 2026; the Q2 release of August 6 said all full-year guidance items remain unchanged |
| Production, third quarter 2026 | 2.29 to 2.32 MMBOED | Q2 release, August 6, 2026 |
| Capital spending, full year 2026 | $12 to $12.5 billion | Q1 release, April 30, 2026; unchanged on August 6 |
| Adjusted operating costs, full year 2026 | $10.2 billion | Preliminary 2026 guidance in the Q3 2025 release, November 6, 2025; the company has described operating cost guidance as unchanged |
| Return to shareholders | 45% of cash from operations in 2026 | Q2 release, August 6, 2026 |
Sources: the ConocoPhillips releases listed under Sources. The April 30 cut to full-year production guidance, from 2.33 to 2.36 MMBOED, came as the Qatar LNG volumes were affected by the Middle East conflict (reported by Zacks, April 30, 2026). On the Q2 call, management said Q2 production of 2,248 MBOED came in above the top of its guidance range and that the Q3 range more than offsets about 15 MBOED of non-core asset sales in July.
What the guidance implies for the fourth quarter (my calculation)
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Production, Q1 2026 (company) | 2,309 MBOED |
| Production, Q2 2026 (company) | 2,248 MBOED |
| Production, Q3 2026 guidance (company) | 2,290 to 2,320 MBOED (midpoint 2,305) |
| Implied Q4 2026 if Q3 comes in at the midpoint and the full year lands at the bottom of 2,295 to 2,325 | about 2,318 MBOED |
| Implied Q4 2026 if Q3 comes in at the midpoint and the full year lands at the top of the range | about 2,438 MBOED |
| Q3 2026 guidance against Q3 2025 production of 2,399 MBOED | -4.5% to -3.3% |
| Capital spending, first half 2026 (company) | $6.0 billion, so about $6.0 to $6.5 billion remains to reach $12 to $12.5 billion |
| Cash from operations, first half 2026, less capital spending (company figures, my subtraction) | about $6.6 billion ($12.6 billion less $6.0 billion) |
In other words, reaching even the bottom of the full-year range needs fourth-quarter production at or slightly above the third-quarter level, and reaching the top needs a clear step up. These are my own calculations, treating the full-year figure as the simple average of the four quarters and ignoring differences in the number of days; the company does not publish a fourth-quarter forecast.
What analysts expect, and the share price
This section uses third-party data, which is not from the company; each figure carries its source and date. Consensus is for the same quarter, compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
| Q3 metric | Consensus for Q3 2026 | Q3 2025 actual (company) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.05 (MarketBeat, October 29, 2026 and October 30 page); $2.97 (Zacks, October 29, 2026) | $1.61 | +89.4% (MarketBeat); +84.5% (Zacks) |
| Revenue | $18.57 billion (MarketBeat, October 30 page); $18.2 billion (Zacks, October 29) | $15,031 million (sales and other operating revenues) | +23.5% on the MarketBeat figure; Zacks published +17.5% |
The two vendors do not use the same revenue base: MarketBeat’s year-earlier figure of $15.03 billion matches the sales line above, while Zacks’ 17.5% growth implies a base near $15.5 billion, which looks like total revenues and other income (my inference), so compare each only with its own source. A $3.05 consensus would be 5.9% below the $3.24 reported for Q2 (my calculation). In Q2, Zacks had a consensus of $2.96 against the $3.24 reported (Zacks, August 6, 2026).
Oil prices set the background. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s monthly Cushing WTI averages, as cited by Zacks on October 29, 2026, were $80.46 in July, $83.90 in August and $97.31 in September, against $68.39, $64.86 and $63.96 a year earlier. The simple average of the three months is about $87.22 against $65.74 (+32.7%, my calculation). The company’s realized price blends oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids and bitumen and does not move one for one with WTI. After the quarter ended, oil fell about 7.6% on Monday, November 2, with Brent settling near $104.77, on hopes of U.S.-Iran diplomacy, according to AP as cited in our November 3 markets article.
COP closed at $154.10 on Friday, October 30, 2026 (source: MarketBeat; the page shows the close for that date). The S&P 500 energy sector then fell 3.97% on Monday, November 2 (Newsquawk, via the same article), so the price has probably moved; check it with your broker. Against the $3.36 annual dividend (4 x $0.84), this gives (my calculation):
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price (close, October 30, 2026) | $154.10 |
| Quarterly dividend of $0.84, $3.36 a year | yield about 2.2% on the price above |
| First-half 2026 dividends ($1.68) as a share of first-half adjusted EPS ($5.13) | about 33% |
MarketBeat shows a payout ratio of 44.44% (October 29, 2026), which is calculated on a different earnings basis than the first-half adjusted figures used here.
What to watch on November 5
- Adjusted EPS against $1.61 in Q3 2025 and against the $3.05 and $2.97 consensus figures. Adjusted EPS was $1.89 in Q1 and $3.24 in Q2, so the consensus asks for a figure between the two.
- Production against 2.29 to 2.32 MMBOED. Q2 production of 2,248 MBOED beat the top of its range, and the Q3 range includes the effect of about 15 MBOED of non-core asset sales in July. Q3 2025 was 2,399 MBOED.
- Realized price per barrel of oil equivalent. It was $62.33 in Q2 against $45.77 a year earlier; the Q3 2025 comparison is $46.44.
- Qatar and the LNG projects. The company said in August that Middle East conflict effects on Qatar offset Lower 48 organic growth in Q2, and on the call said any delay to first gas or first cargo should be in the nature of months, not a full year.
- Capital spending and cash return. The company targets returning 45% of cash from operations in 2026 and bought back $2.0 billion of shares in Q2 ($3.0 billion in the first half), against first-half capital spending of $6.0 billion.
- New deals. The Q2 release cited a 42% interest in a joint venture in Kirkuk, Iraq, with closing expected by year-end 2026, and an agreement to re-enter Syria.
- The dividend and next year’s outlook. Last year the Q3 release, on November 6, 2025, declared an 8% dividend increase to $0.84 and set out preliminary 2026 guidance. Whether the company does something similar this time will be known only on the day.
The dividend
The current quarterly dividend is $0.84 per share ($3.36 a year). The last declaration, on August 6, 2026, was for a record date of August 17, 2026 and a payment on September 1, 2026, the same amount as the dividend paid on June 1. The company has not yet announced the dividend payable in December; last year it was declared with the Q3 results, with a record date of November 17 and a payment on December 1, 2025. Any dates for this year will appear in the results release.
For investors in Europe
- COP pays in U.S. dollars, and U.S. withholding tax applies by default; the rate for non-U.S. investors depends on your broker having a valid Form W-8BEN. See our W-8BEN guide.
- The dollar and euro exchange rate moves the euro value of the dividend independently of anything ConocoPhillips reports.
Sources
- ConocoPhillips: notice of the Q3 2026 earnings conference call on November 5 (Business Wire, via Finviz)
- ConocoPhillips: Q2 2026 results release and quarterly dividend (August 6, 2026)
- ConocoPhillips: Q1 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit (April 30, 2026)
- ConocoPhillips: Q3 2025 results, Form 8-K exhibit (November 6, 2025)
- ConocoPhillips: Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (August 6, 2026)
- SEC XBRL data: ConocoPhillips quarterly revenues from its 10-Q filings
- Q2 2026 earnings call transcript (Investing.com)
- Third-party data (consensus, price, oil), not from the company: MarketBeat (earnings page, price as of October 30, 2026); MarketBeat (October 29, 2026); Zacks Equity Research (preview dated October 29, 2026); Zacks Equity Research (August 6, 2026); Zacks Equity Research (April 30, 2026); Our markets article of November 3, 2026 (AP, Newsquawk)
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Company figures are taken from the releases and filings listed; consensus, the share price and oil prices come from the third-party sources listed, as of the dates stated; and the fourth-quarter, cash flow, payout and yield figures are my own arithmetic, not a company forecast. Confirm current figures with your broker or the company’s investor relations page. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital, and a dividend payment is never guaranteed.
