Markets Before the Open: Oil Above $100 Hits the Dow as Fed Week Begins (Oct 26, 2026)

Wall Street ended last week on a weak note: the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.23% on Friday as crude oil moved above $100 on renewed US-Iran tension and Houthi attacks claimed against Saudi oil infrastructure. This note covers Friday’s close and the weekend news (this is a Monday edition), what has happened overnight, and what is scheduled today, October 26, 2026, a light data day before a heavy week with the Federal Reserve, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. Data cut-off: 08:15 UTC on Monday (10:15 in Bucharest). The Monday-morning quotes below are from a Reuters report updated at 04:44 UTC, so they are stale by the time you read this.

Friday, October 23: how the main indices closed

Sources: US closes from the Associated Press report on Yahoo Finance (published October 23, 2026, 1:14 p.m. PDT); the same levels appear in TradingKey (October 23, 2026) and Dean Financials (October 23, 2026, 20:00 UTC). European and Nikkei levels from Cappnotes (updated October 23, 2026, 22:47 UTC); the STOXX 600 (635.77), FTSE 100 (10,690.36) and CAC 40 (7,782.82) match the Investomine weekly report (October 23, 2026). The DAX is not confirmed: Investomine lists 25,181.65, but labels it a total-return index, so the two figures measure different things. The Nikkei close comes from a single source and is unconfirmed. These are market-data summaries, not exchange files, so the last decimal may differ from the official close.

Rates, oil, gold and currencies

Sources: Friday figures from Cappnotes (October 23, 2026, 22:47 UTC); Yahoo Finance reported the 10-year yield “near 5.01%” late in the session, so treat the level as roughly 5.0%. Monday figures from the Reuters report carried by MarketScreener (updated October 26, 2026, 00:44 EDT). Both are market-data summaries.

What moved markets on Friday and over the weekend

Oil and geopolitics. Crude was the main driver. Per press reports, Iran threatened strikes on civilian targets in neighbouring countries if the US and Israel resumed attacks, and WTI rose about 4% to roughly $103 while Brent rose about 3% to roughly $117. Brent gained 6.2% over the week, its highest weekly close since mid-2022 (Reuters). Over the weekend, Houthi forces in Yemen claimed attacks on Saudi oil pumping stations and Riyadh airport; Riyadh had not confirmed them (Reuters). Brent then eased about 1.9% on Monday after reports that Qatari mediators were in Tehran. These are press reports that I have not independently confirmed.

Sectors and stocks. The Dow lost about 653 points. According to Yahoo Finance, only energy and information technology finished higher among the S&P 500 sectors, and the AP reported that the energy sector rose 2.4% to a record high. SLB rose 6.7% after beating profit estimates, while American Express fell 3.9% despite raising its profit forecast (AP). CrowdStrike gained 8.25% to $257.57 (TradingKey). Telecom shares fell after a report that SpaceX was seeking cell sites for a fourth wireless carrier; that is a press report. For the week, the Dow gained about 0.4%, its third straight weekly gain, while the S&P 500 lost about 0.5% and the Nasdaq about 0.7% (Yahoo Finance).

US data. The S&P Global flash PMIs for October showed composite activity at 57.6 (September: 58.4), manufacturing at 56.0 against 55.5 expected, and services at 57.9 against 58.0 expected; selling prices rose at the sharpest rate since August 2022 (investingLive, October 23, 2026, 13:45 GMT; Kitco, October 23, 2026). The sources disagree on September’s manufacturing and services readings, so I show only the composite comparison. The University of Michigan’s final October consumer sentiment index was 48.0, against 48.1 in September, with five-year inflation expectations at 3.5% (Al Jazeera, October 23, 2026).

Europe. The STOXX 600 fell 0.31% and about 1.4% over the week. Kering dropped roughly 10% after Gucci’s third-quarter sales declined (Reuters via Yahoo Finance, October 23, 2026). I have not seen Kering’s own release, so the company figures are not quoted here. Among the main European indices the DAX fell the most on Friday in the data I found, but that figure rests on one source.

Brazil. Brazil’s electoral court said Lula won a fourth term; opponent Flavio Bolsonaro refused to concede and says he will seek annulment, and a Brazil ETF traded in Tokyo fell 15% (Reuters via MarketScreener).

Overnight in Asia

Asian markets were cautious. Per Reuters (updated 00:44 EDT), Japan’s Nikkei was down about 0.2% in early trading after losing 4.0% last week, South Korea’s main index fell 0.5% and is down almost 20% in October, and Chinese blue chips lost 0.5%, extending an 11-week losing streak. Later morning figures differ by source: Business Recorder had the Nikkei 225 down 0.43% at 62,425.47 in the morning session, on course for its lowest close since July 30, with chip-related shares weighing and energy shares higher. These are intraday readings, not closes. Futures point to a small gain at the open: S&P 500 +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.1%, and Eurostoxx 50, DAX and FTSE futures +0.3%, +0.3% and +0.4% (Reuters, 04:44 UTC).

Monday, October 26: what is scheduled

Sources: Investing.com calendar (published October 23, 2026), whose listed times sit exactly one hour earlier than the usual Eastern-time release schedule, so I converted them on the assumption that the listing is in Central Time; check the official release calendars. Verizon timing from the Verizon announcement; Verizon and after-close earnings from TradingKey weekly outlook (October 25, 2026). No release in the table was out at the time of the cut-off.

With no major US data today, the focus is on oil headlines from the Gulf, Verizon, the Treasury auctions (the 10-year yield sits around 5%, well below the early-October peak of 5.36%) and positioning ahead of the central banks and big-tech earnings.

The rest of the week: the Fed and big earnings

The Federal Reserve meets on October 27 and 28; the decision is due on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m., with no new projections released (TradingKey). The Fed raised its target range by 1/4 point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on September 16, 2026 (Federal Reserve press release). Per Reuters, markets expect a hold this week and price about an 80% chance of a hike in December; that is market pricing, not a forecast by this site. The Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand also decide on Wednesday, with hikes widely expected according to Yardeni Research. On Thursday the first estimate of Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation are due at 8:30 a.m. ET, together with the ECB decision. The Bank of Japan decides on Friday, and the Q3 employment cost index is also due.

On earnings, UPS and Boeing report on Tuesday before the open and Visa after the close; Alphabet and Microsoft report on Wednesday after the close; Mastercard, Eli Lilly and Caterpillar report before the open on Thursday, followed by Amazon and Intel after the close; ExxonMobil and Chevron report on Friday (TradingKey). Earnings dates can change, so confirm them with each company.

Sources

• Federal Reserve: FOMC statement (September 16, 2026)
• Verizon: third-quarter 2026 earnings report date (company announcement)
• Market-data summaries and news, not primary sources: Associated Press via Yahoo Finance (October 23, 2026); TradingKey (October 23, 2026); Dean Financials (October 23, 2026); Cappnotes (October 23, 2026); Investomine (October 23, 2026); Reuters via MarketScreener (October 26, 2026); Business Recorder (October 26, 2026); investingLive (October 23, 2026); Kitco (October 23, 2026); Al Jazeera (October 23, 2026); Investing.com calendar (October 23, 2026); TradingKey weekly outlook (October 25, 2026); Yardeni Research (week ahead)

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Figures come from the sources listed, as of the times stated, and may be revised. Market-data summaries can differ slightly from official exchange figures. Confirm current prices with your broker. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital.