Munich Re (Xetra: MUV2), the German reinsurance and insurance group, publishes its third-quarter 2026 statement on Thursday, November 12, 2026. Unlike most previews, the headline number is already out. On October 23 the company said it expected a net result of about €1.7 billion for the quarter, above the analyst consensus of €1.479 billion that it quoted (the mean of 13 analysts), and it raised its full-year 2026 net result target from €6.3 billion to €6.6 billion (Munich Re ad hoc announcement, October 23, 2026, EQS copy; Reinsurance News reports the same). So the question for Thursday is what is still left to learn. Below: the last four quarters, what the pre-announcement implies, the dividend and what to watch.
The last four quarters, each against the same quarter a year earlier
| Metric (each quarter vs the same quarter a year earlier) | Q3 2025 (vs Q3 2024) | Q4 2025 (vs Q4 2024) | Q1 2026 (vs Q1 2025) | Q2 2026 (vs Q2 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net result (€M) | 1,997 vs 907, +120.2% | 945 vs 1,068, -11.5% | 1,714 vs 1,094, +56.7% | 2,211 vs 2,085, +6.0% |
| Insurance revenue (€M) | 14,575 vs 15,496, -5.9% | 15,250 vs 15,320, -0.5% (my arithmetic) | 15,018 vs 15,811, -5.0% | 14,939 vs 14,775, +1.1% |
| Investment result (€M) | 2,385 vs 2,091, +14.1% | not in the release I reviewed | 1,682 vs 1,323, +27.1% | 3,159 vs 2,187, +44.4% |
| P&C reinsurance combined ratio | 62.7% vs 89.5% | not in the release I reviewed | 66.8% vs 83.9% | 68.9% vs 61.0% |
| P&C reinsurance major-loss expenditure (€M) | 118 vs 1,336 | not in the release I reviewed | 130 vs 1,008 | 191 vs -87 |
Figures are from Munich Re’s own releases: Q3 2025 quarterly statement (November 11, 2025), full-year 2025 release (February 26, 2026; Q4 net result of €945M against €1,068M), Q1 2026 quarterly statement (May 12, 2026) and the Q2 2026 media release (August 7, 2026). Percentage changes are my arithmetic from the two figures shown. Q4 insurance revenue is not stated in the full-year release; I derived it as full-year minus nine months for each year (€60,412M less €45,162M, against €60,830M less €45,510M). A combined ratio below 100% means premiums exceeded claims and costs.
Two things stand out. First, the +120.2% in Q3 2025 looks like a base effect: Q3 2024 carried €1,336M of major losses in P&C reinsurance against €118M a year later, which is my reading of the figures rather than a company statement. Second, Q2 2026 net result rose 6.0% even though the P&C reinsurance combined ratio worsened to 68.9% from 61.0%; the investment result carried the quarter, helped by a €1,174M change in fair value against €84M a year earlier (Q2 release).
What the pre-announcement already tells us (my calculation)
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 net result, preliminary (company, October 23) | about €1.7 billion |
| Q3 2025 net result (company) | €1,997M |
| Change vs Q3 2025 | about -15% on €1.7 billion; roughly -12% to -14% if the rounded figures below are combined (see note) |
| Consensus quoted by the company (mean of 13 analysts) | €1.479 billion; the preliminary figure is about 15% above it |
| First nine months 2026 (company, preliminary) | about €5.7 billion (first half €3,925M plus Q3) |
| First nine months 2025 (company) | €5,176M, so roughly +10% this year |
| Full-year 2026 target (raised from €6.3 billion) | €6.6 billion, +7.8% on the 2025 net result of €6,121M |
| Implied Q4 2026 (target less nine months) | roughly €0.9 billion, against €945M in Q4 2025 |
A note on rounding: the company gives Q3 as “about” €1.7 billion and the nine months as €5.7 billion. With the first half at €3,925M, only a Q3 of roughly €1.725 to €1.75 billion fits both rounded figures, which is where the -12% to -14% comes from. The exact number comes out on Thursday. In the announcement the company named three drivers: solid operations across all segments, major losses in P&C reinsurance below average expectations, and a strong investment result in reinsurance. It added that it may further strengthen its balance sheet in Q4, depending on major-loss developments. The implied Q4 is arithmetic on rounded numbers, not a forecast.
Share price, dividend and buyback
The shares were quoted at €576.20 on November 10, up 1.80% on the day (stoxray, quote dated November 10; the page shows no time of day, so I do not call it a closing price). Quotes differ by source and time. The shares came under pressure last week after JPMorgan cut its rating to Neutral from Overweight, keeping a €590 price target, on expected price pressure in the 2027 renewals (finanztrends.de, November 7, 2026, citing dpa-AFX). That is a third-party opinion, not a recommendation from this blog.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend for 2025, approved at the April 29, 2026 AGM (company) | €24 per share, up from €20 for 2024; about €3.0 billion in total |
| Yield on €576.20 (my arithmetic) | about 4.2% |
| Dividend cost as a share of 2025 net result (my arithmetic) | about 49% (€3.0 billion on €6,121M) |
| Share buyback announced February 26, 2026 (company) | up to €2.25 billion, to be completed by the 2027 AGM |
| Shares outstanding (company website) | 126,970,119 at April 30, 2026, against 130,645,071 at December 31, 2025 |
The ex-dividend date of the last payment was April 30, 2026 (stoxray listing). The dividend for 2026 will be proposed with the full-year results; the amount is not known, and a dividend is never guaranteed.
What to watch on November 12
- The exact Q3 net result against about €1.7 billion, the €1,997M of Q3 2025 and the €1.479 billion consensus the company quoted, plus the precise nine-month figure.
- P&C reinsurance: the combined ratio (62.7% in Q3 2025, 66.8% in Q1 and 68.9% in Q2 2026) and major-loss spending, which the company said was below average expectations.
- The investment result (€3,159M in Q2, with €1,174M from fair-value changes) and how much of the quarter came from gains rather than regular income, which was €2,315M in Q2.
- Revenue and capital: whether the 2026 insurance revenue guidance of €62 billion (cut from €64 billion in August) holds, and the solvency ratio, which was 304% at June 30, 2026 (298% at the end of 2025).
- Renewals: in the Q2 release, the July renewals brought volume of €2.9 billion (down 9.1%) with risk-adjusted prices down 5.5%. Management comments on the January 2027 round matter because JPMorgan’s downgrade rests on exactly that.
For investors outside Germany
- Munich Re pays in euros. If your account is in another currency, exchange-rate moves change the value of both the shares and the dividend independently of the company’s results.
- Germany’s tax authority (BZSt) states that the withholding rate on capital income is currently 26.375% (25% plus a 5.5% solidarity surcharge on that tax), and that non-resident taxpayers can apply for a refund of the part above the rate allowed under a double taxation agreement, within four years (BZSt, page read November 11, 2026). Whether your broker applies a lower rate at source depends on your country and broker. Our dividend withholding tax guide does not cover Germany yet, so check your own tax situation.
Sources
- Munich Re releases: Q3 2025 quarterly statement (November 11, 2025); full-year 2025 results (February 26, 2026); Q1 2026 quarterly statement (May 12, 2026); AGM release (April 29, 2026); Q2 2026 media release (August 7, 2026); ad hoc announcement on preliminary Q3 2026 figures (October 23, 2026, EQS copy); shares page
- Official tax source: Bundeszentralamt fuer Steuern, refund procedure under section 50d(1) EStG
- Third-party data, not from the company: Reinsurance News on the preliminary results; stoxray, price and ex-dividend date, quote dated November 10, 2026; ad-hoc-news.de, November 9, 2026 (release around 7:30 CET and analyst call at 11:00 CET on November 12); finanztrends.de, November 7, 2026 (JPMorgan rating)
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Company figures are taken from the Munich Re releases listed; the share price, analyst rating and consensus come from the sources listed, as of the dates stated, and may have changed; the percentage changes, the implied fourth-quarter figure, the yield and the payout ratio marked as my arithmetic are my own calculations, not a company forecast. Confirm current figures with your broker or the company’s investor relations page. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital, and a dividend payment is never guaranteed.
