Franco-Nevada (NYSE and TSX: FNV), the precious-metals and energy royalty and streaming company, is due to report results for the third quarter of 2026 on Wednesday, November 11, 2026, after the market close. The conference call and webcast follow on Thursday, November 12, at 8:00 a.m. ET, which is 15:00 in Bucharest (Franco-Nevada notice of the Q3 2026 release, read November 11). Some data sites list the release as before the open on November 11; the company’s own notice says after the close, so that is what I use. The last reported quarter, the second quarter of 2026, brought revenue of US$580.9M, up 57.3%, and adjusted net income of $1.81 per share, up from $1.24. The shares opened at $263.85 on Tuesday, November 10, giving a market value of about $50.9 billion (MarketBeat data, The Cerbat Gem, November 10, 2026 (MarketBeat data)); that is an opening price, not a close, and quotes differ by source and time. Below: the last four quarters, each against the same quarter a year earlier, the analyst consensus, what the 2026 guidance implies for the rest of the year, the dividend, and what to watch.
The last four quarters, each against the same quarter a year earlier
| Metric (each quarter vs the same quarter a year earlier) | Q3 2025 (Jul to Sep 2025) | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (US$M) | 487.7 vs 275.7, +76.9% | 597.3 vs 321.0, +86.1% | 650.7 vs 368.4, +76.6% | 580.9 vs 369.4, +57.3% |
| Gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) sold | 138,772 vs 110,110, +26.0% | 141,656 vs 120,063, +18.0% | 136,353 vs 126,585, +7.7% | 132,405 vs 112,093, +18.1% |
| Adjusted net income (US$M) | 275.0 vs 153.9, +78.7% | 356.2 vs 183.3, +94.3% | 458.3 vs 205.6, +122.9% | 349.2 vs 238.5, +46.4% |
| Adjusted net income per share (US$) | $1.43 vs $0.80, +78.7% | $1.85 vs $0.95, +94.7% | $2.38 vs $1.07, +122.4% | $1.81 vs $1.24, +46.0% |
| Adjusted EBITDA (US$M) | 427.3 vs 236.2, +80.9% | 541.2 vs 277.4, +95.1% | 591.9 vs 321.9, +83.9% | 529.7 vs 365.7, +44.8% |
Figures are from Franco-Nevada’s own releases: Q3 2025 (November 3, 2025), Q4 and full-year 2025 (March 10, 2026), Q1 2026 (May 12, 2026) and Q2 2026 (August 11, 2026), all in US dollars. The percentage changes are my arithmetic from the two figures shown, so they can differ by 0.1 point from the rounded changes the company prints. Each quarter is compared only with its own year-earlier quarter. In every quarter, ounces sold grew much more slowly than revenue (for example +7.7% in ounces against +76.6% in revenue in Q1 2026), which suggests higher metal prices rather than volume were the main driver; that is my reading, not a company statement. The company’s own guidance assumes gold at $4,500 an ounce, silver at $75 and WTI oil at $70 a barrel.
What analysts expect
| Q3 2026 metric | Consensus: MarketBeat data, Nov 10 | Consensus: AOL article, read Nov 11 | Q3 2025 actual | Change vs Q3 2025 (my arithmetic) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS (US$) | $1.77 | $1.7349 | $1.43 | +23.8% on $1.77; +21.3% on $1.7349 |
| Revenue (US$M) | 568.44 | 552.33 | 487.7 | +16.6% on 568.44; +13.3% on 552.33 |
| Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS (US$) | $7.40 | $8.01 | $5.58 (full-year 2025) | +32.6% on $7.40; +43.5% on $8.01 |
Third-party consensus figures differ, and I show both. The $1.77 EPS figure is from MarketBeat data (The Cerbat Gem, November 10, 2026 (MarketBeat data)) and matches the figure in the Earnings Whispers via Finviz, November 3, 2026 preview and the Nasdaq-based figure quoted in our Markets Before the Open, November 11 note; $1.7349 and the lower revenue figure come from an AOL article that says its EPS estimate was $2.0352 a month earlier. These are not company-compiled numbers and may move before the release. On the MarketBeat page, the second quarter was a miss against that data provider’s consensus: EPS of $1.81 against $1.95, and revenue of $580.9M against $616.66M. The same page lists a “Moderate Buy” analyst rating (10 Buy, 4 Hold) and an average price target of $275.30, with a 52-week range of $188.47 to $285.67. Those are third-party summaries of analyst opinions, not a recommendation from this blog. Against the $1.43 of a year earlier, the $1.77 consensus is +23.8%, but it is below the $1.81 of the second quarter and well below the $2.38 of the first quarter (my arithmetic).
What the 2026 guidance implies (my calculation)
Franco-Nevada set its 2026 guidance on March 10: 510,000 to 570,000 GEOs in total, made up of 360,000 to 400,000 ounces of gold, 4.7 to 5.5 million ounces of silver, 32,000 to 37,000 ounces of platinum group metals and $245 to $285 million of diversified revenue, excluding any contribution from the Cobre Panamá mine (Q4 and full-year 2025). In the second-quarter release the company said it is tracking toward the upper half of the range, helped by higher oil prices and the anticipated Cobre Panamá deliveries (Q2 2026). First-half GEOs sold were 268,758 (136,353 in Q1 and 132,405 in Q2). The table shows what the second half would need under each point of the range. These are arithmetic, not forecasts; actual deliveries depend on the mines, prices and timing of payments.
| 2026 GEOs (guidance range 510,000 to 570,000, my arithmetic) | Low end | Midpoint (also the start of the upper half) | High end |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-year 2026 GEOs | 510,000 | 540,000 | 570,000 |
| Needed in the second half 2026, after the first-half actual of 268,758 (136,353 in Q1 + 132,405 in Q2) | 241,242 | 271,242 | 301,242 |
| Average per quarter in the second half | 120,621 | 135,621 | 150,621 |
| Second half vs second half of 2025 (280,428) | -14.0% | -3.3% | +7.4% |
If the company ends the year at the midpoint of 540,000, the second half would be 271,242 GEOs, or 3.3% below the 280,428 of the second half of 2025; reaching the high end would need 301,242, or 7.4% above it (my arithmetic). For Cobre Panamá, the second-quarter release says the mine remains in preservation and safe management mode, that Panama authorized the processing of stockpiled ore on April 7, 2026 and that first copper concentrate has been produced. It gives total expected stream deliveries of about 23,100 ounces of gold and 265,000 ounces of silver, starting in the third quarter of 2026, with about one third expected in the second half of 2026.
The dividend and the balance sheet
Franco-Nevada pays a quarterly dividend. In March 2026 it raised it 16% to $0.44 a share from $0.38, the 19th consecutive annual increase (record date March 12, paid March 26). The latest declared dividend, with the second-quarter results, is $0.44, record date September 10 and paid September 24, 2026 (Q2 2026). In each of the four releases I read, the company declared the next quarterly dividend alongside its results: $0.38 (record December 4, paid December 18, 2025) with the Q3 2025 release, and $0.44 each with the Q4 2025, Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 releases. The amount and dates for the next payment are not known until the release comes out. Annualizing $0.44 gives $1.76 a share, a yield of about 0.67% on the $263.85 opening price of November 10 (my arithmetic). That $1.76 is about 23.8% of the $7.40 consensus for 2026 adjusted EPS and about 31.5% of the $5.58 adjusted EPS of 2025 (my arithmetic; the $7.40 is a third-party figure). The company describes itself as debt-free, with $1,014.2M of cash at June 30, 2026 and $4.3 billion of available capital including undrawn credit lines. A dividend is never guaranteed.
What to watch on November 11 and 12
- The guidance line: whether Franco-Nevada repeats that it is tracking toward the upper half of 510,000 to 570,000 GEOs, and how many ounces were sold in Q3 against 138,772 a year earlier.
- Cobre Panamá: whether the first stream deliveries started in the quarter, and any update on the government commission that is considering the mine’s future. The Earnings Whispers via Finviz, November 3, 2026 preview calls this more important for valuation than one quarter’s earnings.
- The energy accruals: the same preview says second-quarter energy and iron ore accruals ran ahead of models, so a clean quarter without revisions is one thing analysts look for.
- Asset mix: whether Côté, Casa Berardi and Valentine offset the fading output at South Arturo (analyst commentary in the same preview; in Q2 the company said South Arturo GEOs were still higher than a year earlier).
- Margins and balance sheet: adjusted EBITDA was 91.2% of revenue in Q2 (529.7 divided by 580.9, my arithmetic); also cash, available capital ($4.3 billion at June 30) and any new deal.
- The price backdrop: the guidance assumes $4,500 gold, and spot gold was quoted at about $4,030 an ounce on November 10 (Kitco, as cited in our Markets Before the Open, November 11 note). An assumption is not a forecast, and revenue also depends on silver, oil and ounces delivered.
Sources
- Franco-Nevada earnings releases: Q3 2025 (November 3, 2025); Q4 and full-year 2025 (March 10, 2026); Q1 2026 (May 12, 2026, PR Newswire copy); Q2 2026 (August 11, 2026)
- Franco-Nevada notice of the Q3 2026 release (October 13, 2026): release, call and webcast times
- Consensus and price: The Cerbat Gem, November 10, 2026 (MarketBeat data); AOL, “Corteva’s First Report Since the Vylor Split and Franco-Nevada’s Gold-Defying Run Both Face a Test” (read November 11, 2026); Earnings Whispers via Finviz, November 3, 2026; Stocktitan earnings calendar, week of November 9 (schedule: Franco-Nevada after the close, call on Thursday morning)
- Gold price: Kitco spot, as quoted in Markets Before the Open, November 11, 2026
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Company figures are taken from the Franco-Nevada releases listed; consensus, analyst ratings and share prices come from the third-party sources listed, as of the dates stated, and may have changed; the percentage changes, the implied second-half figures, the yield and the payout ratios marked as my arithmetic are my own calculations, not a company forecast. Confirm current figures with your broker or the company’s investor relations page. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital, and a dividend payment is never guaranteed.
