Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM), the maker of Marlboro, IQOS and ZYN, is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, October 21, 2026, before the U.S. market opens, with a conference call listed for 9:00 a.m. Eastern (MarketBeat). Below: what the company itself guided in July, what analysts expect, how the dividend looks after September’s raise, and the numbers to compare once the release is out. A follow-up article with the actual results will come after the release.
What was expected, in numbers
| Item | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS, company guidance | $2.20 to $2.25, including an estimated 8-cent unfavorable currency effect | PMI Q2 release, Form 8-K (July 22, 2026) |
| Q3 2026 adjusted EPS, analyst consensus | $2.30 (MarketBeat) / $2.31 (Zacks) | MarketBeat; Zacks (October 2026) |
| Q3 2026 net revenues, analyst consensus | $11.32 billion (MarketBeat) / $11.42 billion (Zacks) | MarketBeat; Zacks (October 2026) |
| Q3 2025 actual: adjusted EPS / net revenues | $2.24 / $10.845 billion | PMI Q3 2025 release, Form 8-K (October 21, 2025) |
| Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $8.26 to $8.41 (up 9.5% to 11.5% from $7.54 in 2025); $8.11 to $8.26 excluding currency | PMI Q2 release, Form 8-K (July 22, 2026) |
One thing stands out: both consensus figures sit above the top of the company’s own Q3 range of $2.20 to $2.25. The sources I checked do not explain the gap, and the figures come from different data providers, so treat them as indicative and compare the actual release with the company’s guidance, not only with consensus. For reference, the guidance range implies roughly flat adjusted EPS against the $2.24 a year earlier, while consensus implies growth of about 3%.
Where the business stood after Q2
- Revenue: net revenues of $11.2 billion, up 10.4% reported and 7.6% organically; adjusted EPS of $2.20, up 15.2%.
- Smoke-free share: about 42% of net revenues, up 0.5 percentage points from a year earlier.
- Heated tobacco: 41.8 billion units shipped, up 7.6%.
- ZYN in the U.S.: 2.9 billion pouches shipped, up 1.8%. The company described consumer offtake as flat to slightly growing in a growing category, and pointed to an uneven competitive landscape.
Source: PMI second-quarter 2026 release, Form 8-K (July 22, 2026). Q2 2026 reported diluted EPS was $1.80 because of a non-cash impairment on the RBH equity investment; the figures above are the adjusted ones.
Four things to look at in the release
- The ZYN trend in the U.S. Shipments grew only 1.8% in Q2 after the very fast growth of 2025 (U.S. oral smoke-free shipments were up 37% in Q3 2025). Zacks flags tough comparisons and heavier competition.
- IQOS in Japan and Europe. Zacks lists Japanese excise-driven price increases and European flavor restrictions as possible headwinds for heated-tobacco volumes.
- Currency. The company estimated an 8-cent hit to Q3 EPS at July exchange rates. A stronger dollar would make that worse.
- The full-year range. Whether the $8.26 to $8.41 adjusted EPS guidance is kept, narrowed or changed.
The dividend: raised in September, paid on October 26
On September 17, 2026 PMI raised its quarterly dividend 8.8%, from $1.47 to $1.60 per share ($6.40 a year). The record and ex-dividend date was October 2, so shares bought now do not receive the payment due on October 26, 2026. The company says it has raised its annual dividend every year since becoming a public company in 2008; the total increase since then is 248%, a compound annual rate of 7.2% (company release, Form 8-K).
How well covered is it? Using the numbers published by the company and by 24/7 Wall St. (October 16, 2026):
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Annual dividend as a share of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | about 76% to 77% ($6.40 divided by $8.41 to $8.26; my calculation) |
| 2025 free cash flow / dividends paid | $10.66 billion / $8.62 billion, so dividends used about 81% of free cash flow |
| 2026 operating cash flow target | about $13.5 billion; no share buybacks planned in 2026 |
| Net debt to adjusted EBITDA | 2.35x according to 24/7 Wall St.; the company targets about 2.0x by the end of 2026 |
| Dividend yield | about 3.1% at a share price of $204.54 (24/7 Wall St., October 16, 2026) |
A payout of three quarters of earnings is comfortable for a stable business, but it leaves less room if currency or the smoke-free ramp-up disappoint, and the company carries a lot of debt. Third-party data providers also compute payout ratios differently (for example on reported rather than adjusted earnings), so figures you see elsewhere may be higher.
Notes for European investors
- PM is a U.S. company, so dividends are paid in dollars and by default U.S. withholding tax applies. The rate for non-U.S. investors depends on your broker having a valid Form W-8BEN on file; see our W-8BEN guide.
- Euro-based investors also carry currency risk: a stronger dollar helps the value of the dividend in euros, while, as the company itself notes, it weighs on PMI’s reported earnings.
- Earnings day can bring large share-price moves in either direction. Placing orders before the U.S. open (9:30 a.m. Eastern) on the day of the release is a decision to take with the volatility in mind.
Sources
- Philip Morris International: Q2 2026 results, Form 8-K exhibit (July 22, 2026)
- Philip Morris International: Q3 2025 results, Form 8-K exhibit (October 21, 2025)
- Philip Morris International: September 2026 dividend announcement, Form 8-K
- MarketBeat: PM Q3 2026 earnings date and estimates
- Zacks via TradingView: Philip Morris Q3 earnings on deck
- 24/7 Wall St.: Philip Morris just raised its dividend 8.8% (October 16, 2026)
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Analyst estimates are forecasts from third-party providers, change often and may differ between sources; the company’s actual results may differ materially. Confirm current figures with your broker or the company’s investor relations page. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of capital, and a dividend payment is never guaranteed.
